Papers for
aviation safety analysts
Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.
Hybrid method extracts causes and risks from aviation accident reports
A Hybrid Framework for Explainable Aviation Risk: Causal Chain Extraction from Safety Reports with Physics-Based Failure Quantification and Interventional Analysis
Abstract: Aviation authorities hold decades of accident reports whose narratives record how investigators reconstructed each accident. Computational work on these archives has mostly sorted reports into fixed taxonomies. In this work, we propose a hybrid framework in which a text-based corpus identifies the leading factors of a failure mode. Physics-based models then quantify how likely that failure is at a stated operating point. Ordered causal chains extracted from 56,202 American accident reports with a local large language model aggregate into a causation knowledge graph. On an evaluation sample of 2,000 reports, the chains recover 90.8% of investigator-flagged causes. Each physical factor whose drivers the record carries receives an occurrence model calibrated to the accident population. A leaky noisy-OR fitted to the corpus combines the factors into a failure mode probability that supports intervention. For engine power loss, the carburetor icing model separates 1,205 icing accidents from other accidents using temperature and dewpoint alone, reaching 0.61 in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve against a density ratio ceiling of 0.64. Routine weather hours give no valid control, because flying concentrates in fair weather. On later years the physics adds 0.03 to that area for occurrence and nothing for severity, so its value lies in interpretability. On four named accidents, abduction gives a probability of necessity of 0.29 to 0.50 for the heat omission, under monotonicity. The Fast Causal Inference algorithm does not license the largest backdoor adjustment on the learned networks.
Probabilistic model extracts causes from aviation safety reports
Semantic Causal-Factor Inference from Aviation Incident Narratives Using A Variational Autoencoder with Cosine-Similarity-Based Reconstruction
Abstract: Aviation accident and incident investigations generate extensive unstructured textual information containing evidence relevant to the causes and contributing factors of safety occurrences. Automatically extracting such information is challenging because causal evidence may be distributed across long and complex investigation narratives. This study proposes a semantic causal-factor inference framework combining natural language processing with a variational autoencoder (VAE) to learn the relationship between aviation investigation narratives and expert-reported probable causes. Investigation narratives and their corresponding probable causes are transformed into numerical representations, after which the encoder maps narrative representations to a probabilistic latent space. The decoder estimates representations of the corresponding probable causes and is trained using an objective that combines Kullback-Leibler divergence with cosine-similarity-based semantic reconstruction. The framework was evaluated using 20,919 finalized U.S. National Transportation Safety Board investigation reports from 2005 to 2020. On the held-out test set, the predicted and expert-reported probable-cause representations achieved a mean cosine similarity of 0.786 (SD = 0.120). The predicted representations also yielded interpretable terms associated with causal information in the reports. The results demonstrate the potential of probabilistic latent representation learning for AI-assisted extraction of causal information from aviation safety narratives while retaining expert investigation as the basis for formal causal determination.