Papers for

agriculture planners

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

AI model improves weather forecasts weeks ahead with simpler targets

S2S-JEPA: Predicting the Predictable at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

Abstract: The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale, roughly from two weeks to two months ahead, is a critical forecast window for sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water management. Yet, it is widely known as the `predictability desert'. Recent AI weather models excel up to two weeks ahead but deteriorate beyond, largely because they are trained to predict fine-scale details that are neither predictable nor essential at S2S timescales. We argue that a more physically grounded objective is to forecast only the slowly varying components that remain predictable. Computer vision reached the same conclusion with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA), which predicts in latent space, discarding unpredictable details. In this work, we introduce S2S-JEPA, which brings the JEPA paradigm to S2S forecasting. It is tailored to this task through design elements from state-of-the-art AI weather models. S2S-JEPA achieves comparable skill to the gold-standard ECMWF physics-based ensemble and surpasses it on multiple metrics at weeks 5 to 6.

Fri 2 OctArtificial IntelligenceMachine Learning
The gist
Weather forecasts for two weeks to two months ahead are very hard because many details can't be predicted reliably. The authors propose focusing on the stable, predictable parts of the weather instead of trying to get every small detail right. They adapted a computer vision technique that predicts these main patterns rather than all details. Their AI model performs as well as or better than the best physics-based forecasts at 5 to 6 weeks ahead. This approach may help farmers, energy managers, and others who need longer-range weather predictions.
Open → 2610.03106v1