Papers for

aerospace design teams

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

Bayesian model updating method removes sampling noise for faster inference

A Bayesian Model Updating Framework for Systems Under Hybrid Uncertainties via Probability Integral Transform and Maximum Mean Discrepancy

Abstract: Model updating under hybrid uncertainty is challenging because aleatory input variability makes the simulator output a probability distribution rather than a scalar, rendering the likelihood analytically intractable. Existing Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods typically employ nested Monte Carlo sampling, where aleatory samples are redrawn for each epistemic parameter evaluation, introducing sampling noise into the discrepancy and consequently affecting posterior inference and model evidence. This paper eliminates this resampling noise by construction. The probability integral transform (PIT) converts the stochastic simulator into a deterministic map of distribution-free latent variables and epistemic parameters. By freezing a set of stratified quantile particles, the resulting discrepancy becomes a deterministic, sampling-noise-free function of the unknown parameters. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) is then employed for posterior inference and model evidence estimation. The framework is validated on a two-dimensional benchmark, a high-dimensional transient oscillator, and Subproblem A of the NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge. The complete Bayesian analysis is achieved in approximately half a minute on a standard desktop workstation.

Wed 16 SeptComputational Engineering, Finance, and Science
The gist
Updating models with uncertain inputs is tricky because results are not fixed numbers but probabilities, making exact calculations very hard. The authors propose a new technique that transforms random outputs into fixed ones, avoiding extra random errors in the calculations. This approach uses known math tools to speed up and improve how we estimate model parameters and their likely values. They tested their method on benchmarks including a NASA challenge and ran analyses quickly on regular computers.
Open 2609.18576v1

Digital twin models reduce costs and mirror fluid dynamics accurately

High-Fidelity Digital Twin Data Models by Randomized Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Deep Learning with Applications in Fluid Dynamics

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is the identification of high-fidelity digital twin data models from numerical code outputs by non-intrusive techniques (i.e., not requiring Galerkin projection of the governing equations onto the reduced modes basis). In this paper the author defines the concept of the digital twin data model (DTM) as a model of reduced complexity that has the main feature of mirroring the original process behavior. The significant advantage of a DTM is to reproduce the dynamics with high accuracy and reduced costs in CPU time and hardware for settings difficult to explore because of the complexity of the dynamics over time. This paper introduces a new framework for creating efficient digital twin data models by combining two state-of-the-art tools: randomized dynamic mode decomposition and deep learning artificial intelligence. It is shown that the outputs are consistent with the original source data with the advantage of reduced complexity. The DTMs are investigated in the numerical simulation of three shock wave phenomena with increasing complexity. The author performs a thorough assessment of the performance of the new digital twin data models in terms of numerical accuracy and computational efficiency.

Tue 15 SeptMachine Learning
The gist
Simulating complex fluid movements, like shock waves, usually takes a lot of computing power and time. The author shows how to create simpler models called digital twins that copy these fluid behaviors very closely but run much faster and use less hardware. This is done by combining two techniques: one that breaks down the data efficiently and another that uses deep learning to understand patterns. Testing on simulations of different shock waves proves these models are both accurate and efficient.
Open 2609.17101v1