adaptive clinical trial designers

Abstract: Conservative bandits must improve an incumbent policy without exhausting a prescribed performance budget. When the incumbent is uncertain, separately bounding candidate and baseline rewards can charge twice for shared estimation error. We develop Reserve-C4B around the baseline-relative contrast itself. A shared confidence set yields an exact expression for this avoidable penalty and a tighter admissibility test at every fixed history. A reserve ledger separates statistical evidence from permitted performance deficit; a prefix-refresh extension recertifies accumulated decisions under the current confidence set without discarding previously certified credit. For linear rewards, self-normalized confidence sets provide simultaneous validity over time and adaptively generated candidates, and the resulting policy satisfies a conditional-mean performance constraint with high probability. Reproducible experiments isolate certificate coupling, prefix refresh, and historical information, showing large reductions in baseline fallback while exposing the limitations of frozen certificates.

Abstract: We study two-arm contextual bandits with arm-specific single indices and a shared unknown monotone link. Monotonicity makes the optimal action depend only on the contrast between the index directions, hence arm-specific reward functions need not be estimated. We introduce Natural Boundary Learning (NBL), a greedy procedure that uses a sequential Stein contrast to learn the optimal boundary directly, without estimating the reward functions or the common link. We characterize the local Riemannian dynamics of NBL through a decision stability coefficient balancing arm separation, link geometry, and the context distribution. We show that this stability is connected to the elicitation geometry of the underlying convex potential. Under local decision stability, NBL contracts toward the optimal boundary and achieves $O(\log n)$ expected regret. Numerical experiments illustrate the predicted stability regimes and compare NBL with a parametric greedy benchmark under link misspecification.

Abstract: We study stochastic linear contextual bandits with arbitrary action menus that may depend on the fixed parameter and the interaction history. We establish matching upper and lower bounds, up to logarithmic factors. Let $d$ be the dimension, $K$ be the menu size, and $T$ the time horizon. For $2\le K\le d$, we prove an upper bound $\widetilde O(K^{1/4}\sqrt{dT})$. When $T\ge d^2$, we further prove a lower bound $Ω(K^{1/4}\sqrt{dT})$. Thus, for $T\ge d^2$ and $2\le K\le d$, the upper and lower bounds match up to logarithmic factors, and the polynomial dependence on $K$ is optimal. Compared with the previous $\widetilde O(\sqrt{dKT})$ bound, our upper bound improves the dependence on $K$ by a factor of $K^{1/4}$. For $K\ge d$, we prove an upper bound $\widetilde O_{d,T}\left(\sqrt{dT}\min\{\sqrt d,(d\log K)^{1/4}\}\right)$ and a lower bound $Ω\left(\sqrt{dT}\min\left\{\sqrt d,\left(\frac{d\log K}{\log(2d)}\right)^{1/4}\right\}\right)$. Here, $\widetilde O_{d,T}$ omits logarithmic factors only in $d$ and $T$. In particular, for polynomially large $K\ge d$, the upper and lower bounds both scale as $d^{3/4}\sqrt T$ up to logarithmic factors, improving the standard $\widetilde O(d\sqrt T)$ rate by a factor of $d^{1/4}$. As $K$ grows further, the regret smoothly recovers the $d\sqrt T$ scale once $\log K$ reaches order $d$.