Papers for

actuarial modelers

Papers whose findings have a practical use for this group, as judged from the abstract. Open a paper to read what it means in practice.

Graphical tools clarify insurance model accuracy and fairness

A Practical Guide on Graphical Model Validation

Abstract: This manuscript formalizes the most popular model validation tools used in general insurance actuarial modeling. These include graphical tools like calibration plots, actual-vs-expected plots, lift charts, Murphy diagrams, as well as classical statistical tools such as Bregman losses, deviance losses, elementary losses, Murphy's decomposition and Gini scores. Particular emphasis is placed on whether calibration and discrimination are studied under a policy-weighted or an exposure-weighted population measure. This distinction is crucial in ensuring that premium schemes are calibrated on the correct scale.

Tue 22 SeptMachine Learning
The gist
Insurance companies use models to estimate how much people should pay for coverage, but it's important to check if these models are fair and accurate. The authors explain popular ways to check this using pictures and statistics that compare what the model predicts with what actually happens. They focus on making sure these checks are done in the right way, depending on how insurance policies are counted. This helps companies set fair prices and keep their models reliable.
Open → 2609.26445v1