The Token Not Taken: Sampling, State, and the Variability of AI Agent Outputs

Agentic AI systems can behave differently across runs: the same request may produce a different plan, a different tool call, a different code edit, or a different final answer. Such variability arises from several layers that are often conflated. A foundation model is a large pretrained model, usually adaptable to many downstream tasks, that maps an input context to predictions over outputs. In many current agents, that model is embedded in an orchestration loop that plans, calls tools, observes results, and updates state. One explicit intrinsic source of variability in such systems is token generation: the model computes scores over possible next tokens, the scores are converted into probabilities, and a decoder may sample tokens using a pseudo-random number generator. A small sampled token difference can then propagate upward into a different tool call, code path, search query, or agent state. Other sources of variability are extrinsic to token sampling, including changing environments, live data, serving infrastructure, batch effects, and numerical details. By separating these layers, the manuscript clarifies what it means to call agentic AI systems stochastic, when such variability can be reproduced under matched conditions, and why deterministic execution need not imply identical behavior in deployed settings.